Do Exeter Chiefs suffer from rustiness after a break?

This is something that has become something approaching accepted wisdom, that Exeter Chiefs struggle in their first game back in the Gallagher Premiership after a break. But is it true do they falter in the first week after a break?

Do Exeter Chiefs struggle after a break from Premiership action?

So the first thing to do is dust off the records and have a look

Now I'm not concerned about the number of days (that's for another blog another day), just the number of weeks between games, equally I've excluded cup games from the equation as it does seem to be a peculiarly Premiership issue (the European games always follow a Premiership block).

So looking at the whole of Exeter's premiership history what difference does the time between Premiership Games make?

Number of Weeks	Games	Win %
1 week	130	60.77%
2 weeks	19	78.95%
3 weeks	29	58.62%
4 weeks	1	0.00%
5 weeks	8	50.00%
>5 weeks	10	50.00%

So actually Chiefs have a better record when they've had a week off, but after a longer period without a league game their record is less impressive.
However can we just look at the 'playoffs era' i.e. since 2015 when Chiefs have been one of the leading sides in the country. This tells a very different story with their win rate after a week or two's break up near the 90% mark.

Number of Weeks	Games	Win %
1 week	59	72.88%
2 weeks	9	88.89%
3 weeks	12	91.67%
5 weeks	2	0.00%
>5 weeks	6	33.33%

This does however show that those longer breaks, typically the start of a season and the first week back after autumn cup matches, do see Chiefs have a very poor record with just 2 wins from 8. Interestingly these wins were both this season, the emphatic win against Leicester on the opening day and the last minute snatched victory at Bristol (thanks again Mr MacDonald) in November. However Chiefs have subsequently lost at Gloucester last month.

Of course the result isn't the only way of rating a performance... we can also look at the points per game and see how they are affected.

Again I've used the split between the "playoffs era" since 15/16  and before that, together with the all time premiership record. The graph shows that as expected in general Chiefs score have scored more points per game in the past 3.5 years than in their first 5 seasons in the premiership.
What is interesting though is the points per game for the longer turnarounds has actually fallen, the average points per game for the more than 5 week turnarounds falling from 31.6 to 24.33, essentially a converted try less per game.

So what does this mean?
There is some truth in the that Exeter Chiefs are not quite as good after a prolonged break from league action and it does seem to be a phenomenon that has come with their recent success. Whether this is a result of the increased number of internationals in the squad meaning these longer breaks lead to a bit more disruption than before.

Next time - What a difference a day makes. Does an extra day's rest help?