How many points = automatic promotion in the football league?

Its very much that time of year, where for those of us with a vested interest any Saturday afternoon glance at some football scores leads onto some hurried mental arithmetic as we try and work out whether the season in which we've already invested emotionally and financially will end in glory or not.

As a Luton Town fan I have some 'skin in the game' again this year, and therefore for the past few weeks I've been trying to work out whether or not the Hatters are on track for a second successive year.... what follows is some of my workings.

How many points do you need to get promoted in the English Football League? 

We'll start by comparing the points needed for the title and promotion in each of the EFL's three divisions and see whether any division is 'easier' to win (in terms of points scored, obviously the championship is the hardest to win from a purely footballing point of view).

For the sake of simplicity throughout this blog I'll refer to the second, third and fourth tier as opposed to the championship/league one/league two or division one/two/three.

I've looked back to 1991/92 (when 4 teams were promoted into the top flight) for the second and third tier and 1995/96 for the fourth tier (when it was expanded to 24 teams). This gave the largest sample possible while we could still compare like with like, and a 46 game season.

Winning the league

Lets start at the top. How many points do you need to win the league (in a 46 game season)?
In terms of how many points the league winners get then the average points for the league winners are 93.9 in the second tier, 92.9 in the third and 89.9 in the fourth.
However this just tells us how many points the winners get, not how many points you need to win the league, for that we need to look at the runners-up.

Somewhat amazingly over the past 27 years the second placed teams in the second and third tiers both average 86.6 points with the runners up in the fourth tier average 84.9.
This suggests that runaway league winners are rarer in the 4th tier which is supported by the fact that the runners up are within 5 points 75% of the time.

If we look at what points totals are most likely for second place we can then assume that scoring one more point would be enough to win the league:

No runner up in any of the three divisions has scored more than the 97 points Luton scored in 2001/02 and not won the league,

they finished runners up in the fourth tier behind Plymouth (whose 102 points in league 2 also hasn't been bettered in the years covered) and indeed only Northampton's title winning 99 points in 2015/16 would have finished above them (Franchise's 97 points in 2007/08 would be pipped on goal difference).
Blackburn's 96 points to not win league one last year is also an exceptional performance, and only 15 sides have finished on more than 90 points and not won the league (in 77 seasons covered less than 20% of the time).

So finish on a points total that starts with a 9 and you are unlucky if you aren't champions as well

On the other hand on 7 occasions 79 points has been enough to finish runners up.

Second Tier Runners Up
(Mean) Average points for 2nd - 86.6 points
Median (Middle value) - 88
Max - 93 (Brighton and Hove Albion 2016/17 and Burnley 2013/14), Min - 79 (4 times most recently Hull City 2012/13)

Third Tier Runners Up
(Mean) Average points for 2nd - 86.6 points
Median (Middle value) - 86
Max - 96 (Blackburn Rovers 2017/18), Min - 79 (Colchester United 2005/06)

Fourth Tier Runners Up
(Mean) Average points for 2nd - 84.9 points
Median (Middle value) - 84
Max - 97 (Luton Town 2001/02), Min - 79 (Rotherham 2012/13)

Winning Automatic Promotion

For those serial worriers amongst us who bear the scars of failed playoff campaigns securing automatic promotion is the big target, with any league title just an afterthought.
So lets start by looking at the average number of points to miss out on automatic promotion by finishing third in the second and third tiers and fourth in the fourth tier.

Only twice (out of 77, just 2.6% of the time) has a team scored 90 or more points and failed to win automatic promotion. 

Both Sunderland (1997/98) and Sheffield United (2011/12) can count themselves doubly unlucky as they went on to lose the playoff final on penalties.
On 18 occasions in the past 27 seasons in the second and third tier (1 in 3 times), a team has scored more than 85 points and missed out on automatic promotion. On the flip side once you reach 84 points in those divisions you are more likely to get promoted automatically than not.

This varies slight between the second and third tiers, with the tipping point of it being more likely to result in automatic promotion being 83 points in the second tier and 84 in the third tier.
In the fourth tier with its extra automatic promotion spot 78 points it becomes more likely to win automatic promotion.

Second Tier (third place)
(Mean) Average points for third - 82.3 points
Median (Middle value) - 84
Max - 90 (Sunderland 1997/98), Min - 74 (Millwall 1993/94)

Third Tier (third place)
(Mean) Average points for third - 83.0 points
Median (Middle value) - 83
Max - 90 (Sheffield United 2011/12), Min - 72 (Grimsby Town 1997/98)

Fourth Tier (fourth place)

(Mean) Average points for fourth - 78.3 points
Median (Middle value) - 78
Max - 85 (Accrington Stanley 2015/16), Min - 72 (Northampton Town 1996/97)

These figures do really show that there is no difference in the number of points required to win or get automatic promotion in either the second or third tier of English football.
The graph below shows how often teams in the three leagues finish in the top few positions on or above various points totals.

Points total (more than or equal to) by position finish by position (46 game seasons in the EFL 1991 onwards)

Implications for Luton

Most importantly what does this mean for the mighty Hatters? At the time of writing Luton Town sit top of league 1 on 72 points from 34 games suggesting with 12 games a promotion winning total is within their grasp. 

Indeed in 6 out of the last 10 years the team top of the table had 72 points or fewer after 34 games, and each team with that number of points has subsequently won promotion automatically in the same period.
Its also worth noting that in the same period only Blackburn (last season on 72 points for fans of a bad omen) failed to win the third tier after being top on March 1st and they still won promotion
So for Luton this season its probably going to end well.